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Le Monde de l'O&G

Technip a toujours été très lié au Monde de l'Oil & Gas (ou de Pétrole et du Gaz) et les hauts et bas des cours du brut, que ce soit du Brent Crude oil de la Mer du Nord ou du West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) des Etats-Unis ou autres, ont toujours directement impacté les activités de Puits petroleTechnip dans le même sens. Suite à la fusion Technipfmc, l'impact est encore plus direct avec les activités de surface de FMC et la part du marché américain encore plus importante dans l'activité globale du groupe

Nous vous proposons des liens vers des analyses et articles relatifs aux activités parapétrolières que nous avons trouvé dans la toile et que nous jugeons intéressant. Ils sont souvent en anglais, ceci permettra pour la plus part d'entre nous de conserver un peu de pratique avec la langue de l'O&G.

SI vous avez d'autres liens à nous proposer, n'hésitez pas à nous les signaler en utilisant la page commentaires ci-après.

Il semble bien que les feux soient de nouveau verts pour le O & G, il sufit d'aller à la pompe pour s'en rendre compte. Cela devrait positivement impacter les E&C contractors d'ici deux ans sur une approche classique Feed+ Fid+ EPC ... mais ce ne sera pas un long fleuve tranquille, on parle de projets multi-billions avec une mise en concurence des main contractors qui restent en vie après la crise.

  • Le 20/04/2018 Un extrait avec un commentaire pour la semaine:
    • CNPC and Petrobras close to a refinery/oil swap deal. Brazilian state-owned oil company Petrobras is nearing a deal with China’s CNPC, which would see a large investment from CNPC in a Brazilian oil refinery, and in exchange, CNPC would receive oil shipments. If it goes forward, it would mark CNPC’s first refining asset in the Americas. CNPC could also receive stakes in offshore oil fields in the Campos basin.
      Questions: les chinois ont ils la capacité de faire une étude de conception ( basic et FEED) de raffinerie sans aide extérieure? Il me semble que Technip avait retiré au Brésil sa capacité de faire des projets "on shore" suite aux déboires encourus précédemment.
       
  • Le 11/04/2018 La mouture de la semaine avec quelques commentaires
    • Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) is the most vulnerable oilfield services firm to new U.S. sanctions on Russia, although its business there still amounts to less than 10 percent of sales, according to Barclays. 
    • Brent oil prices surged above $70 per barrel on Tuesday as concerns of a trade war once again receded. Brent has gained 4.5 percent over two trading days. China’s President helped allay fears by promising to open China’s economy and lower import tariffs. The see-sawing on trade has pushed oil benchmarks all over the place. “It’s not so much ‘risk on/risk off’, as it is ‘trade war on/trade war off’ and, at the moment, we’re ‘trade-war off’,” London Capital Group’s Jasper Lawler told Reuters.
    • China balks at Saudi price increase. Saudi Arabia increased the price of its crude heading to Asia, but instead of swallowing the price hike, Chinese refiners are responding by reducing purchases. Sinopec, Asia’s largest refiner, will cut back on Saudi oil imports by 40 percent in May, according to Reuters. The move suggests Asian refiners no longer feel beholden to Saudi oil, and are confident they can find supplies elsewhere. If Sinopec and others are able to easily swap out Saudi oil, it also suggests the oil market is not as tight as some think. commentaire jmg: ceci est inquiétant et surprenant. Inquiétant car le prix du brut risque de baisser sérieusement quand on sait que les accords entre membres de l'OPEC peuvent être réduits à néant en une seconde vu l'inimitié régnante entre les membres. Surprenant car les raffineries en chine semblent être suffisamment flexibles pour absorber des changements brutaux de spécification de charge ce qui était jusqu'alors une qualité des raffineries de dernières générations. Etrange car je n'ai pas souvenir que la chine a récemment investi dans la construction de raffineries modernes.
    • Total SA and Aramco ink $5 billion petrochemical deal. Saudi Aramco and Total SA (NYSE: TOT) signed a $5 billion deal to build a massive petrochemical complex at their 440,000 bpd Jubail Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia. The announcement comes as Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman visits France. commentaire jmg: En principe et en toute logique, cela devrait se conclure normalement par un contrat avec Technip(FMC) suivant le schéma identique à Satorp ( progressive LS?).
       
  • Le 04/04/2018 voiciquelques articles publiés dans Oil Price cette semaine :
    • I​nvestment banks see rising oil prices. A Wall Street Journal survey of 15 investment bank points to higher oil prices. The average forecasted price for Brent and WTI for 2018 from the 15 banks came in at $63 and $59 per barrel, respectively. Both of those figures are up $1 per barrel from last month’s survey, an indication that falling crude oil inventories and rising geopolitical concerns are leading to a more bullish outlook. 
    • Bullish LNG market outlook. Up until recently, most analysts expected the LNG market to suffer from oversupply for years. The outlook is radically shifting, with more and more forecasts predicting a tight market in the 2020s. There is a lack of investment today because of low spot prices and a reluctance on the behalf of buyers to lock in to long-term contracts, which is preventing developers from moving forward with new supply. According to HSBC, the global market only added 12 million tons of LNG per annum (mtpa) in 2016-2017, while consumption increased by 27 mtpa.
       
  • Le 31/03/2018 voiciquelques articles publiés dans Oil Price cette semaine :
    • Shale firms step up dividends. About a third of the top 25 shale producers have either paid or have promised to pay a dividend this year, according to Reuters. That is the largest number in over a decade since the shale revolution began. The shale industry has largely been unprofitable, even when oil prices were high prior to the collapse in 2014. Low prices forced an efficiency drive, and with WTI now above $60 per barrel, a lot of shale companies are beginning to post profits for the first time. Shareholders are finally starting to see some return. Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG) became the first shale company in years to initiate a dividend last month when it announced a 12.5-cent quarterly dividend. “You’re going to see more shale producers focus on dividends,” Leigh Goehring of energy investment research firm G&R Associates told Reuters. “Shareholders are demanding it and a trend is forming.”
    • Trafigura: Oil prices could go higher. Trafigura's co-head of market risk Ben Luckock spoke with Argus and said that oil prices could go higher in the years ahead due to strong demand the slowdown of U.S. shale. “U.S. shale growth has been quick, immediate and flexible but it would be a mistake to think shale is your one solution to meet demand growth, which could lead to higher prices in the next couple of years,” Luckock said.
       
  • Le 14/03/2018 voiciquelques articles publiés dans Oil Price cette semaine :
    • Saudi Aramco IPO delayed until 2019. The FT reports that Saudi officials are likely to delay the Aramco IPO until 2019, as they are struggling to push up the valuation of the company to $2 trillion. Separate reports have suggested that Saudi officials are aiming for oil prices to move up to about $70 per barrel before they stage a public offering, which would increase the value of the company. Some analysts even think that the international IPO won’t happen. “I would guess it is about evens that there will be no international IPO,” a high level source told Reuters, saying that the preparations for the IPO have been a disappointment. Meanwhile, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman will visit Washington on March 20.
    • Hedge funds start shorting oil again. Last week, hedge funds and other money managers increased their short bets on oil futures by the most this year, perhaps an indication that investors are not convinced that oil prices will hold at current levels. The surge in U.S. shale production, which has forced forecasters to continuously revise up their expectations, is starting to weigh on sentiment. “The market’s entire focus is on these just amazing production numbers,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management, told Bloomberg. For the week ending on March 6, hedge funds and other money managers slashed their net-long position by 4.3%, which was largely the result of the 15% increase in short bets. ​
       
  • Le 10/03/2018:Voici quelque nouvelles fraiches publiées dans Oilprice.com

    --> les optimistes:

    • at the CERA Week Conference on Tuesday. The sentiment came after the IEA warned that the oil market will be short on supply in the 2020s without an increase in upstream spending. In fact, there is a growing chorus of analysts who agree with the basic premise that the oil market could be well-supplied in the near-term because of U.S. shale, but faces supply risks in the early- to mid-2020s because of low upstream investment. "I am not losing any sleep over peak oil demand or stranded resources," Nasser added.saidSaudi Aramco CEO: Oil industry needs $20 trillion in investment. Over the next 25 years, the oil industry will need another $25 trillion in investment just to meet expected demand, while also accounting for natural depletion at existing fields, Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser
    • Royal Dutch Shell, the world’s top LNG trader, said that more than $200 billion of investment in liquefied natural gas is needed to meet a boom in demand by 2030. The LNG market is set to continue its rapid expansion into 2020 as facilities approved for construction in the first half of the decade come on line. However, decline in spending in the sector since 2014 as a result of weaker energy prices will create a supply gap from the mid-2020s unless new investments emerge

--> les indécis :

  • Citi: Oil to drop below $60 by summer. Citi’s Ed Morse says that U.S. shale is going to flood the market, pushing Brent prices into the $50s within a few months. Others disagree. Gary Ross, global head of oil analytics and chief energy economist at S&P Global Platts, told the WSJ that WTI could jump into the $70s later this year because of soaring demand. Needless to say, analysts have a wide range of opinions about what to expect in the oil market over the next few quarters. 
     
  • Le 16/02/2018 Pétrole : La force change de camp (ou le retour du pétrole de schiste) 
    https://www.zonebourse.com/WTI-2355639/actualite/Petrole-La-force-change-de-camp-26008805/
     
  • Le 13/02/2018 Pétrole: l'offre augmentera probablement plus vite que la demande en 2018  https://www.zonebourse.com/WTI-2355639/actualite/Petrole-l-offre-augmentera-probablement-plus-vite-que-la-demande-en-2018-AIE-25982576/
     
  • Le 09/02/2018 Pétrole : la Chine va lancer ses contrats à terme, rivaux du Brent et du WTI   https://www.zonebourse.com/WTI-2355639/actualite/Petrole-la-Chine-va-lancer-ses-contrats-a-terme-rivaux-du-Brent-et-du-WTI-25962948
     
  • Le 25/01/2018: 4 nouvelles intéressantes à lire:

    Russia to invest in Saudi Aramco. In a move to strengthen the strategic partnership between Russia and Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports that Russian pension funds are planning on investing in Saudi Aramco when it goes public. That could reinforce efforts for the two top oil producers to coordinate their oil production efforts for years to come. “Extending such cooperation for many more years would be very useful for the market. It has proven its efficiency, when we were targeting balancing supply and demand rather than targeting a particular oil price,” the head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, told Reuters on Tuesday.

    Investment approvals for new oil projects rising. Major oil projects that were delayed when oil prices crashed are starting to receive approvals. Rystad Energy says that the number of delayed projects that have now received a greenlight doubled in 2017 from the combined number in 2015 and 2016. Those projects span Brazil, Angola China and elsewhere and are a sign of rising confidence in new upstream investments. 

    Hedge fund sees $80 oil; others see falling prices. BBL Commodities LP, one of the world’s largest oil-focused hedge funds, predicts oil prices will rise to $80 per barrel this year on the back of falling inventories. "We think the market is vastly overestimating the near term inventory buffer," Jonathan Goldberg, the founder of BBL Commodities, told Bloomberg. "Given the rise in demand over the past five years, inventories are especially low as a measure of forward cover." On the other hand, Barclays says the current focus on falling inventories is myopic. “The market is dangerously focused on newly published backwards-looking data and, in our view, is not paying attention to the stockbuilds that are likely to emerge later this year and in 2019.” The investment bank says oil prices are probably at their high point for the year, and the bank predicts Brent will average just $60 per barrel in 2018.

    Halliburton voices optimism about oil market. Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) reported earnings of 53 cents per share in the fourth quarter, up sharply from 4 cents from a year earlier. The better-than-expected performance came as North American drilling activity picked up, boosting both demand for its services and its pricing. Jeff Miller, the company’s new CEO, said the fourth quarter was “excellent,” and that 2017 was “a dynamic year for the oil and gas sector that marked another step on the road to recovery for our industry.” He also said that he was “optimistic about what I see in 2018.”

    ​Tout cela converge et laisse à penser que le O&G devrait repartir.

  • Le 11/01/2018 Le Monde: Le contre-choc pétrolier de 2014-2016 n'a pas dopé la croissance mondiale, contrairement à une idée reçue. La remontée des cours de l'or noir va-t-il doper la croissance ? Le contre choc petrolier le monde 11 jan 2018le-contre-choc-petrolier-le-monde-11-jan-2018.pdf (1.1 Mo)
     
  • Le 10/01/2018 Analyse de Crédit Suisse: Les activités services dans la production pétrolière vont prochainement rebondir 
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oilfield-services-stocks-are-about-to-stage-a-big-rebound-credit-suisse-says-2018-01-03 
     
  • Downstream conference & Exhibition May 31 - June 2018. Intéressant de noter qu'ils font référence à une "second wave"​: "For the Downstream industry, driving efficiency, improving labor productivity and reducing cost on capital projects is always the focus. With the 2nd wave of project investment imminent, owners and contractors alike are looking for ways to supercharge their project delivery to complete quicker and for less
    http://1.petchem-update.com/LP=19309?utm_campaign=4891-19DEC17-WK23-TA%20%28Karla%29&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua&elqTrackId=eabda7115f7943d4a449ac7412a7a1dc&elq=14b68f99774b43ba9ae901a590529500&elqaid=33006&elqat=1&elqCampaignId=16623
     
  • Décembre 2017 : BP CEO not worried about shale threat. BP (NYSE: BP) CEO Bob Dudley told the FT that he isn’t worried about shale threatening conventional oil producers in the long-term. He argued that shale won’t be able to grow forever, so the threat to permanently low oil prices is not as big as most people think. “There are cracks appearing in the model of the Permian being one single, perfect oilfield,” he said. Over the long run, that could diminish shale’s importance. “I don’t think [U.S. shale] will be the perfect swing producer now,” Dudley said in an FT interview. “For a while, I was worried. But I think it is going to be less solid.” An estimate from Wood Mackenzie finds that shale growth will face problems in the 2020s after the sweetest spots are picked over. BP has dabbled in shale drilling, but is overwhelmingly concentrated in conventional oil fields.
     
  • Le 18/12/2017 Business Wire: TOTAL lance le projet géant du champ de LIBRA au Brésil  
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171218005410/en/Brazil-Total-Launches-Large-Scale-Development-Giant-Libra 
     
  • Le 14/12/2017 Bloomberg : Goldman dit que les majors pétroliers sont prêts pour la meilleure année sur la décennie.

    Un article intéressant car il prédit une excellente année 2018 pour les Oil majors. Un point d'intérêt est qu'il semble que le breack even point ( $ / baril) pour les Oil majors est moins élevé pour le deep offshore que pour le shale. Conséquence les petits producteurs qui ont été les causes de la chute des prix du baril sont majoritairement des exploitants de shale oïl ont de sérieuses difficultés à gagner de l'argent d'autant plus que les banques ont coupé le robinet à ces petits producteurs dont la santé financière s'est fragilisée. Le retour des grands projets est donc possible ?.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-14/goldman-says-big-oil-is-poised-for-its-best-year-in-decades

  • Le 28/10/2017 Les Echos : Les dividendes ne sont pas l'ennemi des investissements. Dans une étude, la lettre Vernimmen conteste l'idée reçue selon laquelle les entreprises investiraient plus si elles verseraient moins de dividendes. Les dividendes ne sont pas l ennemi des investissements les echos 28oct2017les-dividendes-ne-sont-pas-l-ennemi-des-investissements-les-echos-28oct2017.pdf (937.36 Ko)